Strategie Long-Term Transportation Planning and Dynamic Transportation models: a Life Cycle Interpretation

In the recent past a vide variety of strategie transportation planning issues has come to the f ore, at both the supply and the demand side. Land use problems, environmental externalities, lack of capacity, and high speed transport systems have dramatically altered the conventional scène of transportation planning. The paper will give an overview of emerging transportation planning issues from a perspective ranging from local to international developments. The dynamic evolution of these planning issues will be interpreted from the viewpoint of the so-called policy life cycle hypothesis. The main question to be answered is whether the wide variety of multitemporal or dynamic transportation models (e.g., dynamic models of discrete choice, Lotka-Volterra models, dynamic programming models, etc.) are able to provide analytical support to the above mentioned strategie planning issues. Much attention will be given here to the problem of 'predicting the unpredictable• and the potential of recently developed models in this context (e.g., based on theory of chaos). In this context, the life cycle concept appears to provide a meaningful frame of reference.